Falcons 2–1 Dutch Lions: Result & Stats

Falcons

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Dutch Lions

3/25/2025

GFA League · Round 16

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Falcons45%

×Draw31%

Dutch Lions24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FalconsExpected goals in this matchDutch Lions

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

0.74

Falcons

1.13

Dutch Lions

0.74

Falcons creates 53% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 30 away

1.03

creates per match

0.70

0.78

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Falcons

1.03

Dutch Lions

0.70

allows per match

Falcons

0.78

Dutch Lions

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Falcons+0.00on par

Dutch Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Falcons ↓

Dutch Lions →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Falcons or draw

76%

Falcons or Dutch Lions

69%

Draw or Dutch Lions

55%

Winning margin

Falcons wins by 2+

19%

Dutch Lions wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Falcons 1+ goals

68%

Falcons 2+ goals

31%

Falcons 3+ goals

11%

Dutch Lions 1+ goals

52%

Dutch Lions 2+ goals

17%

Dutch Lions 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Falcons (draw refunded)

65%

Dutch Lions (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Falcons at home — creates 1.03, concedes 0.78 · 60 matches

Dutch Lions away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.23 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Falcons attack 1.03 + Dutch Lions defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.13

Dutch Lions attack 0.70 + Falcons defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Falcons scores more

45%

level

31%

Dutch Lions scores more

24%

Falcons at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Falcons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff