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Falcon vs Retrô — Serie D 2018

Falcon
Falcon
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Retrô
Retrô
5/6/2023Serie DSerie D · 1st Phase - 1Estádio Estadual Lourival Baptista

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Falcon36%
×Draw31%
Retrô33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Falcon
1.02
Retrô
0.96

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 42 away

creates per match

Falcon
1.00
Retrô
1.17

allows per match

Falcon
0.75
Retrô
1.05

finishing

Falcon+0.00on par
Retrô+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Falcon ↓

Retrô →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Falcon or draw
67%
Falcon or Retrô
69%
Draw or Retrô
64%

Winning margin

Falcon wins by 2+
14%
Retrô wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Falcon 1+ goals
64%
Falcon 2+ goals
27%
Falcon 3+ goals
8%
Retrô 1+ goals
62%
Retrô 2+ goals
25%
Retrô 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Falcon (draw refunded)
52%
Retrô (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Falcon at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.75 · 8 matches

Retrô away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.05 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Falcon attack 1.00 + Retrô defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.02

Retrô attack 1.17 + Falcon defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Falcon scores more
36%
level
31%
Retrô scores more
33%

Falcon at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Falcon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Falcon 1 – 1 Retrô

Falcon and Retrô drew 1-1 in Serie D on May 6, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Estadual Lourival Baptista in Aracaju, Sergipe.