Falcon 4–1 Cruzeiro Arapiraca: Result & Stats

Falcon

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Cruzeiro Arapiraca

7/2/2023

Serie D · 1st Phase - 11Estádio Estadual Lourival Baptista

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Falcon52%

×Draw25%

Cruzeiro Arapiraca23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FalconExpected goals in this matchCruzeiro Arapiraca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

0.94

Falcon

1.57

Cruzeiro Arapiraca

0.94

Falcon creates 67% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

1.00

creates per match

1.14

0.75

allows per match

2.14

creates per match

Falcon

1.00

Cruzeiro Arapiraca

1.14

allows per match

Falcon

0.75

Cruzeiro Arapiraca

2.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Falcon+0.00on par

Cruzeiro Arapiraca+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Falcon ↓

Cruzeiro Arapiraca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Falcon or draw

77%

Falcon or Cruzeiro Arapiraca

75%

Draw or Cruzeiro Arapiraca

48%

Winning margin

Falcon wins by 2+

27%

Cruzeiro Arapiraca wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Falcon 1+ goals

79%

Falcon 2+ goals

46%

Falcon 3+ goals

21%

Cruzeiro Arapiraca 1+ goals

61%

Cruzeiro Arapiraca 2+ goals

24%

Cruzeiro Arapiraca 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Falcon (draw refunded)

70%

Cruzeiro Arapiraca (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Falcon at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.75 · 8 matches

Cruzeiro Arapiraca away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Falcon attack 1.00 + Cruzeiro Arapiraca defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.57

Cruzeiro Arapiraca attack 1.14 + Falcon defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Falcon scores more

52%

level

25%

Cruzeiro Arapiraca scores more

23%

Falcon at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Falcon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff