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Fakel vs Volga Ulyanovsk — First League 2018

Fakel
Fakel
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Volga Ulyanovsk
Volga Ulyanovsk
B. Pusi 43' (pen), 16'
I. Gershun 21'
10/4/2025First LeagueFirst League · Round 13Fakel Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Fakel46%
×Draw30%
Volga Ulyanovsk24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fakel
1.19
Volga Ulyanovsk
0.78

Fakel creates 53% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 34 away

creates per match

Fakel
1.16
Volga Ulyanovsk
0.85

allows per match

Fakel
0.72
Volga Ulyanovsk
1.21

finishing

Fakel+0.00on par
Volga Ulyanovsk+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fakel ↓

Volga Ulyanovsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Fakel or draw
76%
Fakel or Volga Ulyanovsk
70%
Draw or Volga Ulyanovsk
54%

Winning margin

Fakel wins by 2+
20%
Volga Ulyanovsk wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Fakel 1+ goals
70%
Fakel 2+ goals
33%
Fakel 3+ goals
12%
Volga Ulyanovsk 1+ goals
54%
Volga Ulyanovsk 2+ goals
18%
Volga Ulyanovsk 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Fakel (draw refunded)
65%
Volga Ulyanovsk (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fakel at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.72 · 90 matches

Volga Ulyanovsk away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.21 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fakel attack 1.16 + Volga Ulyanovsk defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.19

Volga Ulyanovsk attack 0.85 + Fakel defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Fakel scores more
46%
level
30%
Volga Ulyanovsk scores more
24%

Fakel at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Fakel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'
B. Pusi
21'
I. Gershun
32'
N. Motpan← I. Alshin
43'
B. PusiPenalty
44'
Nikolay Giorgobiani
45'
Mikhail Umnikov
56'
D. Kamenshchikov← V. Rudenko
59'
A. Kovalev← B. Magomedov
59'
M. Turishchev← G. Gongadze
68'
A. Murza← I. Gershun
68'
A. Kostin← M. Umnikov
81'
Anton Kovalev
82'
K. Simonov← A. Bagamaev
82'
N. Abdokov← B. Pusi
85'
V. Yakovlev← E. Voronin
85'
A. Gutsa← O. Krasilnichenko
90+2'
Igor Obukhov

Statistics

FakelVolga
Discipline
3Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0

First League: Fakel 2–1 Volga Ulyanovsk

Fakel beat Volga Ulyanovsk 2-1 in First League on October 4, 2025.

Goals: B. Pusi (16', 43' pen), I. Gershun (21').

The match was played at Fakel Stadium in Voronezh.