Fakel 4–0 Rotor Volgograd: Result & Stats

Fakel

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Rotor Volgograd

10/20/2025

First League · Round 15Fakel Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Fakel39%

×Draw31%

Rotor Volgograd30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FakelExpected goals in this matchRotor Volgograd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

0.89

Fakel

1.05

Rotor Volgograd

0.89

Fakel creates 18% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 87 away

1.16

creates per match

1.06

0.72

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

Fakel

1.16

Rotor Volgograd

1.06

allows per match

Fakel

0.72

Rotor Volgograd

0.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fakel+0.00on par

Rotor Volgograd+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fakel ↓

Rotor Volgograd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Fakel or draw

70%

Fakel or Rotor Volgograd

69%

Draw or Rotor Volgograd

61%

Winning margin

Fakel wins by 2+

15%

Rotor Volgograd wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Fakel 1+ goals

65%

Fakel 2+ goals

28%

Fakel 3+ goals

9%

Rotor Volgograd 1+ goals

59%

Rotor Volgograd 2+ goals

22%

Rotor Volgograd 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Fakel (draw refunded)

56%

Rotor Volgograd (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fakel at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.72 · 90 matches

Rotor Volgograd away — creates 1.06, concedes 0.95 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fakel attack 1.16 + Rotor Volgograd defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.05

Rotor Volgograd attack 1.06 + Fakel defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Fakel scores more

39%

level

31%

Rotor Volgograd scores more

30%

Fakel at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Fakel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff