Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Fakel vs Dynamo — Premier League 2025

Fakel
Fakel
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Dynamo
Dynamo
N. Giorgobiani 90+9'
D. Fomin 26'
11/24/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 16Stadion Fakel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Fakel23%
×Draw27%
Dynamo50%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fakel
0.86
Dynamo
1.42

Dynamo creates 65% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 31 away

creates per match

Fakel
0.63
Dynamo
1.58

allows per match

Fakel
1.25
Dynamo
1.10

finishing

Fakel+0.00on par
Dynamo+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fakel ↓

Dynamo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–115%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Fakel or draw
50%
Fakel or Dynamo
73%
Draw or Dynamo
77%

Winning margin

Fakel wins by 2+
7%
Dynamo wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Fakel 1+ goals
58%
Fakel 2+ goals
21%
Fakel 3+ goals
6%
Dynamo 1+ goals
76%
Dynamo 2+ goals
41%
Dynamo 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Fakel (draw refunded)
31%
Dynamo (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fakel at home — creates 0.63, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

Dynamo away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.10 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fakel attack 0.63 + Dynamo defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.86

Dynamo attack 1.58 + Fakel defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Fakel scores more
23%
level
27%
Dynamo scores more
50%

Dynamo at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Dynamo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
I. AlshinFakelFakel · M
8.3

Match Events

-5'
Denis Makarov
8'
Maks Dziov
26'
D. Fomin↳ Arthur Gomes
33'
Sergey Bozhin
45+3'
Luis Chávez
56'
Diego Laxalt
58'
I. Yurganov← M. Dziov
67'
K. Tyukavin← E. Maouhoub
67'
D. Skopintsev← Y. Gladyshev
77'
J. Carrascal← Arthur Gomes
78'
D. Aleksandrov← A. Kutitskiy
83'
N. Giorgobiani← S. Bozhin
83'
A. Ivlev← V. Yakimov
88'
I. Vasin← D. Mertens
90+8'
V. Grulev← L. Chávez
90+9'
N. Giorgobiani↳ A. Ivlev

Possession

54%Fakel

Shots

26Fakel

Pass accuracy

53%Fakel

Statistics

FakelDynamo
Overview
54%Possession46%
26Total Shots10
7Corners4
14Fouls15
Shots
26Total Shots10
5On Target2
15Off Target6
6Blocked2
13Inside Box4
13Outside Box6
Passing
54%Possession46%
373Total Passes338
263Accurate Passes216
71%Pass Accuracy64%
Goalkeeping
1Saves4
Discipline
14Fouls15
2Yellow Cards3
2Offsides1

Match Recap: Fakel vs Dynamo

Fakel and Dynamo drew 1-1 in Premier League on November 24, 2024.

Goals: D. Fomin (26'), N. Giorgobiani (90+9').

Fakel controlled possession (54%) and registered 26 shots to 10.

The match was played at Stadion Fakel in Voronezh.