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Fakel vs Akhmat — Premier League 2018

Fakel
Fakel
Preview
16:30
Akhmat
Akhmat
8/10/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 3Fakel Stadium
Big match
40%
Fakel
model favours
40%29%30%
1–0
likely score
63%
under 2.5 goals
43%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Fakel40%
×Draw29%
Akhmat30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fakel
1.18
Akhmat
0.98

Fakel creates 20% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 121 away

creates per match

Fakel
0.89
Akhmat
1.01

allows per match

Fakel
0.96
Akhmat
1.47

finishing

Fakel+0.00on par
Akhmat+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fakel ↓

Akhmat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Fakel or draw
70%
Fakel or Akhmat
71%
Draw or Akhmat
60%

Winning margin

Fakel wins by 2+
17%
Akhmat wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Fakel 1+ goals
69%
Fakel 2+ goals
33%
Fakel 3+ goals
12%
Akhmat 1+ goals
62%
Akhmat 2+ goals
26%
Akhmat 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Fakel (draw refunded)
57%
Akhmat (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fakel at home — creates 0.89, concedes 0.96 · 46 matches

Akhmat away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.47 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fakel attack 0.89 + Akhmat defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.18

Akhmat attack 1.01 + Fakel defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Fakel scores more
40%
level
29%
Akhmat scores more
30%

Fakel at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Fakel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Akhmat outscore their xG (1.6 vs 0.5 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Fakel
Balanced
Akhmat
Direct / counter-attacking
46%PossessionBiggest gap42%
68%Pass accuracy72%
13.6Shots13.4
—xG0.47
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
FakelAkhmat

Head-to-head

6 previous meetings

3
Fakel
2
Draws
1
Akhmat
Avg goals: 2.5BTTS: 67%
0–03–22–02–11–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Fakel
LDWWD
Akhmat
WDWWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Fakel host Akhmat

August 10, 2026: Fakel take on Akhmat in Premier League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Fakel host Akhmat at Fakel Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.