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Fakel Voronezh vs Akhmat Grozny — Premier League 2018

Fakel Voronezh
Fakel Voronezh
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Akhmat Grozny
Akhmat Grozny
4/16/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 23Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Fakel Voronezh40%
×Draw29%
Akhmat Grozny30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fakel Voronezh
1.18
Akhmat Grozny
0.98

Fakel Voronezh creates 20% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 121 away

creates per match

Fakel Voronezh
0.89
Akhmat Grozny
1.01

allows per match

Fakel Voronezh
0.96
Akhmat Grozny
1.47

finishing

Fakel Voronezh+0.00on par
Akhmat Grozny+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fakel Voronezh ↓

Akhmat Grozny →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Fakel Voronezh or draw
70%
Fakel Voronezh or Akhmat Grozny
71%
Draw or Akhmat Grozny
60%

Winning margin

Fakel Voronezh wins by 2+
17%
Akhmat Grozny wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Fakel Voronezh 1+ goals
69%
Fakel Voronezh 2+ goals
33%
Fakel Voronezh 3+ goals
12%
Akhmat Grozny 1+ goals
62%
Akhmat Grozny 2+ goals
26%
Akhmat Grozny 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Fakel Voronezh (draw refunded)
57%
Akhmat Grozny (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fakel Voronezh at home — creates 0.89, concedes 0.96 · 46 matches

Akhmat Grozny away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.47 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fakel Voronezh attack 0.89 + Akhmat Grozny defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.18

Akhmat Grozny attack 1.01 + Fakel Voronezh defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Fakel Voronezh scores more
40%
level
29%
Akhmat Grozny scores more
30%

Fakel Voronezh at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Fakel Voronezh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Fakel Voronezh 1–1 Akhmat Grozny

Fakel Voronezh and Akhmat Grozny drew 1-1 in Premier League on April 16, 2023.

The match was played at Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov in Voronezh.