Fakel Voronezh 0–1 Zenit 2: Result & Stats

Fakel Voronezh

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Zenit 2

A. Panyukov 81'

3/24/2018

First League · Round 29Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov (Voronezh)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Fakel Voronezh48%

×Draw30%

Zenit 222%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fakel VoronezhExpected goals in this matchZenit 2

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.74

Fakel Voronezh

1.25

Zenit 2

0.74

Fakel Voronezh creates 69% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 34 away

1.16

creates per match

0.76

0.73

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Fakel Voronezh

1.16

Zenit 2

0.76

allows per match

Fakel Voronezh

0.73

Zenit 2

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fakel Voronezh+0.00on par

Zenit 2+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fakel Voronezh ↓

Zenit 2 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Fakel Voronezh or draw

78%

Fakel Voronezh or Zenit 2

70%

Draw or Zenit 2

52%

Winning margin

Fakel Voronezh wins by 2+

22%

Zenit 2 wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Fakel Voronezh 1+ goals

71%

Fakel Voronezh 2+ goals

36%

Fakel Voronezh 3+ goals

13%

Zenit 2 1+ goals

52%

Zenit 2 2+ goals

17%

Zenit 2 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Fakel Voronezh (draw refunded)

69%

Zenit 2 (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fakel Voronezh at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.73 · 91 matches

Zenit 2 away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.35 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fakel Voronezh attack 1.16 + Zenit 2 defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.25

Zenit 2 attack 0.76 + Fakel Voronezh defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Fakel Voronezh scores more

48%

level

30%

Zenit 2 scores more

22%

Fakel Voronezh at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Fakel Voronezh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

61'

I. Zuev← N. Kakkoev

77'

A. Serdyuk← D. Michurenkov

77'

E. Ushakov← I. Lukjanovs

81'

A. Panyukov

85'

A. Plotnikov← D. Pletnev

87'

A. Alkhazov← T. Mustafin

89'

S. Krapukhin← A. Panyukov

Fakel

Zenit

41

Kerzhakov

56

Krugovoi

59

Bugriev

54

▼

79

88

37

49

▼

Pletnev

38

Musaev

33

⚽

▼

64

25

3

92

63

▼

Mustafin

55

Osipenko

77

Afanasyev

23

▼

15

96

5

19

▼

Michurenk

Manager: P. Gusev

77'▲A. Serdyuk←▼D. Michurenkov

77'▲E. Ushakov←▼I. Lukjanovs

87'▲A. Alkhazov←▼T. Mustafin

Fakel Voronezh substitutes

11Serdyuk37Ushakov22Alkhazov8Manukovskiy9Verulidze10Ambartsumyan16Fedorov17Arustamyan33Sharifi45Sadov

Manager: K. Zyryanov

61'▲I. Zuev←▼N. Kakkoev

85'▲A. Plotnikov←▼D. Pletnev

89'▲S. Krapukhin←▼A. Panyukov

Zenit 2 substitutes

58Zuev73Plotnikov36Krapukhin32Prudnikov39Zapriagayev93Kizeev98Elovskikh