Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Fakel Voronezh vs Urozhay — First League 2018

Fakel Voronezh
Fakel Voronezh
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Urozhay
Urozhay
4/2/2022First LeagueFirst League · Round 30Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Fakel Voronezh48%
×Draw29%
Urozhay24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fakel Voronezh
1.30
Urozhay
0.82

Fakel Voronezh creates 59% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 53 away

creates per match

Fakel Voronezh
1.16
Urozhay
0.92

allows per match

Fakel Voronezh
0.72
Urozhay
1.45

finishing

Fakel Voronezh+0.00on par
Urozhay+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fakel Voronezh ↓

Urozhay →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Fakel Voronezh or draw
76%
Fakel Voronezh or Urozhay
71%
Draw or Urozhay
52%

Winning margin

Fakel Voronezh wins by 2+
22%
Urozhay wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Fakel Voronezh 1+ goals
73%
Fakel Voronezh 2+ goals
37%
Fakel Voronezh 3+ goals
14%
Urozhay 1+ goals
56%
Urozhay 2+ goals
20%
Urozhay 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Fakel Voronezh (draw refunded)
67%
Urozhay (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fakel Voronezh at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.72 · 90 matches

Urozhay away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.45 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fakel Voronezh attack 1.16 + Urozhay defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.30

Urozhay attack 0.92 + Fakel Voronezh defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Fakel Voronezh scores more
48%
level
29%
Urozhay scores more
24%

Fakel Voronezh at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Fakel Voronezh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Fakel Voronezh 0–0 Urozhay

Fakel Voronezh and Urozhay drew 0-0 in First League on April 2, 2022.

The match was played at Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov in Voronezh.