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Fakel Voronezh vs Torpedo Moskva — First League 2018

Fakel Voronezh
Fakel Voronezh
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Torpedo Moskva
Torpedo Moskva
3/19/2022First LeagueFirst League · Round 28Stadion Kuban

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Fakel Voronezh38%
×Draw30%
Torpedo Moskva32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fakel Voronezh
1.10
Torpedo Moskva
0.97

Fakel Voronezh creates 13% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 104 away

creates per match

Fakel Voronezh
1.16
Torpedo Moskva
1.22

allows per match

Fakel Voronezh
0.72
Torpedo Moskva
1.05

finishing

Fakel Voronezh+0.00on par
Torpedo Moskva+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fakel Voronezh ↓

Torpedo Moskva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Fakel Voronezh or draw
68%
Fakel Voronezh or Torpedo Moskva
70%
Draw or Torpedo Moskva
62%

Winning margin

Fakel Voronezh wins by 2+
16%
Torpedo Moskva wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Fakel Voronezh 1+ goals
67%
Fakel Voronezh 2+ goals
30%
Fakel Voronezh 3+ goals
10%
Torpedo Moskva 1+ goals
62%
Torpedo Moskva 2+ goals
25%
Torpedo Moskva 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Fakel Voronezh (draw refunded)
55%
Torpedo Moskva (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fakel Voronezh at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.72 · 90 matches

Torpedo Moskva away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.05 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fakel Voronezh attack 1.16 + Torpedo Moskva defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.10

Torpedo Moskva attack 1.22 + Fakel Voronezh defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Fakel Voronezh scores more
38%
level
30%
Torpedo Moskva scores more
32%

Fakel Voronezh at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Fakel Voronezh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fakel Voronezh vs Torpedo Moskva

Torpedo Moskva beat Fakel Voronezh 1-0 in First League on March 19, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Kuban in Krasnodar.