Fakel Voronezh 0–1 Torpedo Moskva: Result & Stats

Fakel Voronezh

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Torpedo Moskva

I. Sergeev 81'

7/7/2019

First League · Round 1Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Fakel Voronezh39%

×Draw30%

Torpedo Moskva31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fakel VoronezhExpected goals in this matchTorpedo Moskva

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

0.97

Fakel Voronezh

1.11

Torpedo Moskva

0.97

Fakel Voronezh creates 14% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 101 away

1.17

creates per match

1.21

0.74

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Fakel Voronezh

1.17

Torpedo Moskva

1.21

allows per match

Fakel Voronezh

0.74

Torpedo Moskva

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fakel Voronezh+0.00on par

Torpedo Moskva+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fakel Voronezh ↓

Torpedo Moskva →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Fakel Voronezh or draw

69%

Fakel Voronezh or Torpedo Moskva

70%

Draw or Torpedo Moskva

61%

Winning margin

Fakel Voronezh wins by 2+

16%

Torpedo Moskva wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Fakel Voronezh 1+ goals

67%

Fakel Voronezh 2+ goals

30%

Fakel Voronezh 3+ goals

10%

Torpedo Moskva 1+ goals

62%

Torpedo Moskva 2+ goals

25%

Torpedo Moskva 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Fakel Voronezh (draw refunded)

55%

Torpedo Moskva (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fakel Voronezh at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.74 · 90 matches

Torpedo Moskva away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.05 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fakel Voronezh attack 1.17 + Torpedo Moskva defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.11

Torpedo Moskva attack 1.21 + Fakel Voronezh defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Fakel Voronezh scores more

39%

level

30%

Torpedo Moskva scores more

31%

Fakel Voronezh at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Fakel Voronezh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

49'

R. Pukhov← I. Mazurov

53'

A. Gladyshev← T. Bukia

66'

A. Lyakh

68'

S. Bozhin

70'

A. Galoyan← K. Kertanov

81'

I. Sergeev

83'

I. Khleborodov

90'

S. Buchnev

90'

M. Bagaev← A. Eliseev

90+4'

A. Samsonov← I. Samoshnikov

Fakel

Torpedo

22

16

47

3

77

▼

Samoshnik

7

Ryazantse

24

Lyakh

4

▼

Eliseev

11

▼

Kertanov

10

Lebedenko

33

⚽

22

25

3

7

26

8

88

27

▼

Bukia

34

Dmitriev

11

▼

Mazurov

13

Khleborod

Manager: S. Oborin

49'▲R. Pukhov←▼I. Mazurov

53'▲A. Gladyshev←▼T. Bukia

Fakel Voronezh substitutes

17Pukhov55Gladyshev2Neplyuev10Kosyanchuk23V.Turukin79Ermakov

Manager: N. Savichev

70'▲A. Galoyan←▼K. Kertanov

90'▲M. Bagaev←▼A. Eliseev

90+4'▲A. Samsonov←▼I. Samoshnikov

Torpedo Moskva substitutes

20Galoyan17Bagaev44Samsonov6Shustikov9Selyukov15Orekhov27Kalugin85Tsitsilin90Kenyaykin