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Fakel Voronezh vs TOM Tomsk — First League 2018

Fakel Voronezh
Fakel Voronezh
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
TOM Tomsk
TOM Tomsk
9/23/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 11Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Fakel Voronezh46%
×Draw29%
TOM Tomsk24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fakel Voronezh
1.24
TOM Tomsk
0.81

Fakel Voronezh creates 53% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 74 away

creates per match

Fakel Voronezh
1.16
TOM Tomsk
0.91

allows per match

Fakel Voronezh
0.72
TOM Tomsk
1.32

finishing

Fakel Voronezh+0.00on par
TOM Tomsk+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fakel Voronezh ↓

TOM Tomsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Fakel Voronezh or draw
76%
Fakel Voronezh or TOM Tomsk
71%
Draw or TOM Tomsk
54%

Winning margin

Fakel Voronezh wins by 2+
21%
TOM Tomsk wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Fakel Voronezh 1+ goals
71%
Fakel Voronezh 2+ goals
35%
Fakel Voronezh 3+ goals
13%
TOM Tomsk 1+ goals
56%
TOM Tomsk 2+ goals
19%
TOM Tomsk 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Fakel Voronezh (draw refunded)
66%
TOM Tomsk (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fakel Voronezh at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.72 · 90 matches

TOM Tomsk away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.32 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fakel Voronezh attack 1.16 + TOM Tomsk defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.24

TOM Tomsk attack 0.91 + Fakel Voronezh defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Fakel Voronezh scores more
46%
level
29%
TOM Tomsk scores more
24%

Fakel Voronezh at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Fakel Voronezh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Fakel Voronezh 0–0 TOM Tomsk

Fakel Voronezh and TOM Tomsk drew 0-0 in First League on September 23, 2020.

The match was played at Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov in Voronezh.