Fakel Voronezh 1–3 Orenburg: Result & Stats

Fakel Voronezh

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Orenburg

4/22/2023

Premier League · Round 24Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Fakel Voronezh46%

×Draw27%

Orenburg27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fakel VoronezhExpected goals in this matchOrenburg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.00

Fakel Voronezh

1.39

Orenburg

1.00

Fakel Voronezh creates 39% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 91 away

0.89

creates per match

1.05

0.96

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Fakel Voronezh

0.89

Orenburg

1.05

allows per match

Fakel Voronezh

0.96

Orenburg

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fakel Voronezh+0.00on par

Orenburg+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fakel Voronezh ↓

Orenburg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Fakel Voronezh or draw

73%

Fakel Voronezh or Orenburg

73%

Draw or Orenburg

54%

Winning margin

Fakel Voronezh wins by 2+

22%

Orenburg wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Fakel Voronezh 1+ goals

75%

Fakel Voronezh 2+ goals

40%

Fakel Voronezh 3+ goals

16%

Orenburg 1+ goals

63%

Orenburg 2+ goals

26%

Orenburg 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Fakel Voronezh (draw refunded)

63%

Orenburg (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fakel Voronezh at home — creates 0.89, concedes 0.96 · 46 matches

Orenburg away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.89 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fakel Voronezh attack 0.89 + Orenburg defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.39

Orenburg attack 1.05 + Fakel Voronezh defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Fakel Voronezh scores more

46%

level

27%

Orenburg scores more

27%

Fakel Voronezh at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Fakel Voronezh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff