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Fakel Voronezh vs Mordovia Saransk — First League 2018

Fakel Voronezh
Fakel Voronezh
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Mordovia Saransk
Mordovia Saransk
8/3/2019First LeagueFirst League · Round 6Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Fakel Voronezh49%
×Draw27%
Mordovia Saransk23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fakel Voronezh
1.39
Mordovia Saransk
0.86

Fakel Voronezh creates 62% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 36 away

creates per match

Fakel Voronezh
1.16
Mordovia Saransk
1.00

allows per match

Fakel Voronezh
0.72
Mordovia Saransk
1.61

finishing

Fakel Voronezh+0.00on par
Mordovia Saransk+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fakel Voronezh ↓

Mordovia Saransk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Fakel Voronezh or draw
77%
Fakel Voronezh or Mordovia Saransk
73%
Draw or Mordovia Saransk
51%

Winning margin

Fakel Voronezh wins by 2+
24%
Mordovia Saransk wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Fakel Voronezh 1+ goals
75%
Fakel Voronezh 2+ goals
40%
Fakel Voronezh 3+ goals
16%
Mordovia Saransk 1+ goals
58%
Mordovia Saransk 2+ goals
21%
Mordovia Saransk 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Fakel Voronezh (draw refunded)
68%
Mordovia Saransk (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fakel Voronezh at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.72 · 90 matches

Mordovia Saransk away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.61 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fakel Voronezh attack 1.16 + Mordovia Saransk defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.39

Mordovia Saransk attack 1.00 + Fakel Voronezh defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Fakel Voronezh scores more
49%
level
27%
Mordovia Saransk scores more
23%

Fakel Voronezh at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Fakel Voronezh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Fakel Voronezh 2–1 Mordovia Saransk

Fakel Voronezh beat Mordovia Saransk 2-1 in First League on August 3, 2019.

The match was played at Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov in Voronezh.