Fakel Voronezh 3–2 Metallurg Lipetsk

Fakel Voronezh

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Metallurg Lipetsk

10/23/2021

First League · Round 19Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Fakel Voronezh57%

×Draw24%

Metallurg Lipetsk19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fakel VoronezhExpected goals in this matchMetallurg Lipetsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

0.84

Fakel Voronezh

1.67

Metallurg Lipetsk

0.84

Fakel Voronezh creates 99% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 19 away

1.17

creates per match

0.95

0.73

allows per match

2.16

creates per match

Fakel Voronezh

1.17

Metallurg Lipetsk

0.95

allows per match

Fakel Voronezh

0.73

Metallurg Lipetsk

2.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fakel Voronezh+0.00on par

Metallurg Lipetsk+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fakel Voronezh ↓

Metallurg Lipetsk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Fakel Voronezh or draw

81%

Fakel Voronezh or Metallurg Lipetsk

76%

Draw or Metallurg Lipetsk

43%

Winning margin

Fakel Voronezh wins by 2+

31%

Metallurg Lipetsk wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Fakel Voronezh 1+ goals

81%

Fakel Voronezh 2+ goals

50%

Fakel Voronezh 3+ goals

23%

Metallurg Lipetsk 1+ goals

57%

Metallurg Lipetsk 2+ goals

21%

Metallurg Lipetsk 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Fakel Voronezh (draw refunded)

75%

Metallurg Lipetsk (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fakel Voronezh at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.73 · 89 matches

Metallurg Lipetsk away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.16 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fakel Voronezh attack 1.17 + Metallurg Lipetsk defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.67

Metallurg Lipetsk attack 0.95 + Fakel Voronezh defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Fakel Voronezh scores more

57%

level

24%

Metallurg Lipetsk scores more

19%

Fakel Voronezh at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Fakel Voronezh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff