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Fakel Voronezh vs Dinamo Moscow — Premier League 2018

Fakel Voronezh
Fakel Voronezh
FT
3 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Dinamo Moscow
Dinamo Moscow
7/30/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 3Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Fakel Voronezh34%
×Draw28%
Dinamo Moscow37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fakel Voronezh
1.13
Dinamo Moscow
1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 46 home / 120 away

creates per match

Fakel Voronezh
0.89
Dinamo Moscow
1.41

allows per match

Fakel Voronezh
0.96
Dinamo Moscow
1.37

finishing

Fakel Voronezh+0.00on par
Dinamo Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fakel Voronezh ↓

Dinamo Moscow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Fakel Voronezh or draw
63%
Fakel Voronezh or Dinamo Moscow
72%
Draw or Dinamo Moscow
66%

Winning margin

Fakel Voronezh wins by 2+
14%
Dinamo Moscow wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Fakel Voronezh 1+ goals
68%
Fakel Voronezh 2+ goals
31%
Fakel Voronezh 3+ goals
11%
Dinamo Moscow 1+ goals
70%
Dinamo Moscow 2+ goals
33%
Dinamo Moscow 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Fakel Voronezh (draw refunded)
48%
Dinamo Moscow (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fakel Voronezh at home — creates 0.89, concedes 0.96 · 46 matches

Dinamo Moscow away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.37 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fakel Voronezh attack 0.89 + Dinamo Moscow defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.13

Dinamo Moscow attack 1.41 + Fakel Voronezh defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Fakel Voronezh scores more
34%
level
28%
Dinamo Moscow scores more
37%

Dinamo Moscow at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Dinamo Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Fakel Voronezh 3–3 Dinamo Moscow

Fakel Voronezh and Dinamo Moscow drew 3-3 in Premier League on July 30, 2022.

The match was played at Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov in Voronezh.