Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Fakel Voronezh vs Alaniya Vladikavkaz — First League 2018

Fakel Voronezh
Fakel Voronezh
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
4/10/2022First LeagueFirst League · Round 32Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Fakel Voronezh42%
×Draw29%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fakel Voronezh
1.25
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
0.98

Fakel Voronezh creates 28% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 70 away

creates per match

Fakel Voronezh
1.16
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
1.24

allows per match

Fakel Voronezh
0.72
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
1.33

finishing

Fakel Voronezh+0.00on par
Alaniya Vladikavkaz+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fakel Voronezh ↓

Alaniya Vladikavkaz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Fakel Voronezh or draw
71%
Fakel Voronezh or Alaniya Vladikavkaz
71%
Draw or Alaniya Vladikavkaz
58%

Winning margin

Fakel Voronezh wins by 2+
19%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Fakel Voronezh 1+ goals
71%
Fakel Voronezh 2+ goals
36%
Fakel Voronezh 3+ goals
13%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz 1+ goals
62%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz 2+ goals
26%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Fakel Voronezh (draw refunded)
59%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fakel Voronezh at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.72 · 90 matches

Alaniya Vladikavkaz away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.33 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fakel Voronezh attack 1.16 + Alaniya Vladikavkaz defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.25

Alaniya Vladikavkaz attack 1.24 + Fakel Voronezh defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Fakel Voronezh scores more
42%
level
29%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz scores more
29%

Fakel Voronezh at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Fakel Voronezh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fakel Voronezh vs Alaniya Vladikavkaz

Fakel Voronezh beat Alaniya Vladikavkaz 2-1 in First League on April 10, 2022.

The match was played at Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov in Voronezh.