Fakel U19 3–1 UOR №5 U20: Result & Stats

Fakel U19

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

UOR №5 U20

10/4/2024

Youth Championship · Relegation Round - 6Stadion Lokomotiv Voronezh

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Fakel U1954%

×Draw21%

UOR №5 U2025%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fakel U19Expected goals in this matchUOR №5 U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.05

1.32

Fakel U19

2.05

UOR №5 U20

1.32

Fakel U19 creates 55% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 65 away

1.47

creates per match

1.40

1.25

allows per match

2.63

creates per match

Fakel U19

1.47

UOR №5 U20

1.40

allows per match

Fakel U19

1.25

UOR №5 U20

2.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fakel U19+0.00on par

UOR №5 U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fakel U19 ↓

UOR №5 U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Fakel U19 or draw

75%

Fakel U19 or UOR №5 U20

79%

Draw or UOR №5 U20

46%

Winning margin

Fakel U19 wins by 2+

32%

UOR №5 U20 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Fakel U19 1+ goals

87%

Fakel U19 2+ goals

61%

Fakel U19 3+ goals

33%

UOR №5 U20 1+ goals

73%

UOR №5 U20 2+ goals

38%

UOR №5 U20 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Fakel U19 (draw refunded)

69%

UOR №5 U20 (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fakel U19 at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.25 · 60 matches

UOR №5 U20 away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.63 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fakel U19 attack 1.47 + UOR №5 U20 defence 2.63 → ÷2 → 2.05

UOR №5 U20 attack 1.40 + Fakel U19 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Fakel U19 scores more

54%

level

21%

UOR №5 U20 scores more

25%

Fakel U19 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Fakel U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff