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Fakel U19 vs Nizhny Novgorod U19 — Youth Championship 2026

Fakel U19
Fakel U19
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Nizhny Novgorod U19
Nizhny Novgorod U19
8/2/2024Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Round 17Stadion Lokomotiv Voronezh

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Fakel U1951%
×Draw23%
Nizhny Novgorod U1926%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fakel U19
1.77
Nizhny Novgorod U19
1.19

Fakel U19 creates 49% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 74 away

creates per match

Fakel U19
1.47
Nizhny Novgorod U19
1.12

allows per match

Fakel U19
1.25
Nizhny Novgorod U19
2.08

finishing

Fakel U19+0.00on par
Nizhny Novgorod U19+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fakel U19 ↓

Nizhny Novgorod U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Fakel U19 or draw
74%
Fakel U19 or Nizhny Novgorod U19
77%
Draw or Nizhny Novgorod U19
49%

Winning margin

Fakel U19 wins by 2+
28%
Nizhny Novgorod U19 wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Fakel U19 1+ goals
83%
Fakel U19 2+ goals
53%
Fakel U19 3+ goals
26%
Nizhny Novgorod U19 1+ goals
70%
Nizhny Novgorod U19 2+ goals
33%
Nizhny Novgorod U19 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Fakel U19 (draw refunded)
66%
Nizhny Novgorod U19 (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fakel U19 at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.25 · 60 matches

Nizhny Novgorod U19 away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.08 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fakel U19 attack 1.47 + Nizhny Novgorod U19 defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.77

Nizhny Novgorod U19 attack 1.12 + Fakel U19 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Fakel U19 scores more
51%
level
23%
Nizhny Novgorod U19 scores more
26%

Fakel U19 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Fakel U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fakel U19 vs Nizhny Novgorod U19

Fakel U19 beat Nizhny Novgorod U19 4-0 in Youth Championship on August 2, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv Voronezh in Voronezh.