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Fakel U19 vs CSKA Moskva U19 — Youth Championship 2026

Fakel U19
Fakel U19
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
CSKA Moskva U19
CSKA Moskva U19
4/12/2024Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Round 5Stadion Lokomotiv Voronezh

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Fakel U1928%
×Draw24%
CSKA Moskva U1948%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fakel U19
1.29
CSKA Moskva U19
1.75

CSKA Moskva U19 creates 36% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 81 away

creates per match

Fakel U19
1.47
CSKA Moskva U19
2.25

allows per match

Fakel U19
1.25
CSKA Moskva U19
1.10

finishing

Fakel U19+0.00on par
CSKA Moskva U19+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fakel U19 ↓

CSKA Moskva U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Fakel U19 or draw
52%
Fakel U19 or CSKA Moskva U19
76%
Draw or CSKA Moskva U19
72%

Winning margin

Fakel U19 wins by 2+
12%
CSKA Moskva U19 wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Fakel U19 1+ goals
72%
Fakel U19 2+ goals
37%
Fakel U19 3+ goals
14%
CSKA Moskva U19 1+ goals
83%
CSKA Moskva U19 2+ goals
52%
CSKA Moskva U19 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Fakel U19 (draw refunded)
37%
CSKA Moskva U19 (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fakel U19 at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.25 · 60 matches

CSKA Moskva U19 away — creates 2.25, concedes 1.10 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fakel U19 attack 1.47 + CSKA Moskva U19 defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.29

CSKA Moskva U19 attack 2.25 + Fakel U19 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Fakel U19 scores more
28%
level
24%
CSKA Moskva U19 scores more
48%

CSKA Moskva U19 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "CSKA Moskva U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fakel U19 vs CSKA Moskva U19

CSKA Moskva U19 beat Fakel U19 1-0 in Youth Championship on April 12, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv Voronezh in Voronezh.