Fakel II 1–2 Strogino: Result & Stats

Fakel II

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Strogino

11/8/2020

Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 15Stadion Chayka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Fakel II33%

×Draw25%

Strogino42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fakel IIExpected goals in this matchStrogino

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.47

Fakel II

1.27

Strogino

1.47

Strogino creates 16% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 92 away

0.90

creates per match

1.10

1.83

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Fakel II

0.90

Strogino

1.10

allows per match

Fakel II

1.83

Strogino

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fakel II+0.00on par

Strogino+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fakel II ↓

Strogino →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Fakel II or draw

58%

Fakel II or Strogino

75%

Draw or Strogino

67%

Winning margin

Fakel II wins by 2+

14%

Strogino wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Fakel II 1+ goals

72%

Fakel II 2+ goals

36%

Fakel II 3+ goals

14%

Strogino 1+ goals

77%

Strogino 2+ goals

43%

Strogino 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Fakel II (draw refunded)

44%

Strogino (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fakel II at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.83 · 30 matches

Strogino away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.64 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fakel II attack 0.90 + Strogino defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.27

Strogino attack 1.10 + Fakel II defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Fakel II scores more

33%

level

25%

Strogino scores more

42%

Strogino at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Strogino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff