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Fakel II vs Kaluga — Second League - Group 3 2020

Fakel II
Fakel II
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Kaluga
Kaluga
4/6/2021Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 17Stadion Lokomotiv Voronezh

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Fakel II26%
×Draw26%
Kaluga48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fakel II
1.01
Kaluga
1.48

Kaluga creates 47% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 55 away

creates per match

Fakel II
0.90
Kaluga
1.13

allows per match

Fakel II
1.83
Kaluga
1.11

finishing

Fakel II+0.00on par
Kaluga+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fakel II ↓

Kaluga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Fakel II or draw
52%
Fakel II or Kaluga
74%
Draw or Kaluga
74%

Winning margin

Fakel II wins by 2+
9%
Kaluga wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Fakel II 1+ goals
64%
Fakel II 2+ goals
27%
Fakel II 3+ goals
8%
Kaluga 1+ goals
77%
Kaluga 2+ goals
43%
Kaluga 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Fakel II (draw refunded)
35%
Kaluga (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fakel II at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.83 · 30 matches

Kaluga away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.11 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fakel II attack 0.90 + Kaluga defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.01

Kaluga attack 1.13 + Fakel II defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Fakel II scores more
26%
level
26%
Kaluga scores more
48%

Kaluga at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Kaluga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 3: Fakel II 1–0 Kaluga

Fakel II beat Kaluga 1-0 in Second League - Group 3 on April 6, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv Voronezh in Voronezh.