Fajr Sepasi 1–0 Van Pars Isfahan: Result & Stats

Fajr Sepasi

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Van Pars Isfahan

M. Saifi 75'

1/18/2023

Azadegan League · Round 18Hafezieh Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Fajr Sepasi57%

×Draw28%

Van Pars Isfahan15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fajr SepasiExpected goals in this matchVan Pars Isfahan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

0.54

Fajr Sepasi

1.35

Van Pars Isfahan

0.54

Fajr Sepasi creates 150% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 16 away

1.51

creates per match

0.56

0.51

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Fajr Sepasi

1.51

Van Pars Isfahan

0.56

allows per match

Fajr Sepasi

0.51

Van Pars Isfahan

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fajr Sepasi+0.00on par

Van Pars Isfahan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No69
Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fajr Sepasi ↓

Van Pars Isfahan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–18%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Fajr Sepasi or draw

85%

Fajr Sepasi or Van Pars Isfahan

72%

Draw or Van Pars Isfahan

43%

Winning margin

Fajr Sepasi wins by 2+

28%

Van Pars Isfahan wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Fajr Sepasi 1+ goals

74%

Fajr Sepasi 2+ goals

39%

Fajr Sepasi 3+ goals

15%

Van Pars Isfahan 1+ goals

42%

Van Pars Isfahan 2+ goals

10%

Van Pars Isfahan 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Fajr Sepasi (draw refunded)

79%

Van Pars Isfahan (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fajr Sepasi at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.51 · 87 matches

Van Pars Isfahan away — creates 0.56, concedes 1.19 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fajr Sepasi attack 1.51 + Van Pars Isfahan defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.35

Van Pars Isfahan attack 0.56 + Fajr Sepasi defence 0.51 → ÷2 → 0.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Fajr Sepasi scores more

57%

level

28%

Van Pars Isfahan scores more

15%

Fajr Sepasi at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Fajr Sepasi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

75'

M. Saifi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff