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Fajr Sepasi vs SorkhPooshan Pakdasht — Azadegan League 2018

Fajr Sepasi
Fajr Sepasi
FT
0 – 2
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
11/26/2018Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 14Grand Shiraz Stadium (Shīrāz (Shiraz))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Fajr Sepasi47%
×Draw28%
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fajr Sepasi
1.34
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
0.88

Fajr Sepasi creates 52% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 32 away

creates per match

Fajr Sepasi
1.40
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
1.25

allows per match

Fajr Sepasi
0.50
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
1.28

finishing

Fajr Sepasi+0.00on par
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fajr Sepasi ↓

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Fajr Sepasi or draw
75%
Fajr Sepasi or SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
72%
Draw or SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
53%

Winning margin

Fajr Sepasi wins by 2+
22%
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Fajr Sepasi 1+ goals
74%
Fajr Sepasi 2+ goals
39%
Fajr Sepasi 3+ goals
15%
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht 1+ goals
59%
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht 2+ goals
22%
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Fajr Sepasi (draw refunded)
66%
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fajr Sepasi at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.50 · 100 matches

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.28 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fajr Sepasi attack 1.40 + SorkhPooshan Pakdasht defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.34

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht attack 1.25 + Fajr Sepasi defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Fajr Sepasi scores more
47%
level
28%
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht scores more
25%

Fajr Sepasi at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Fajr Sepasi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fajr Sepasi vs SorkhPooshan Pakdasht

SorkhPooshan Pakdasht beat Fajr Sepasi 2-0 in Azadegan League on November 26, 2018.

The match was played at Grand Shiraz Stadium (Shīrāz (Shiraz)).