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Fajr Sepasi vs Shahre Raz — Azadegan League 2018

Fajr Sepasi
Fajr Sepasi
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Shahre Raz
Shahre Raz
11/22/2023Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 13Hafezieh Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Fajr Sepasi55%
×Draw29%
Shahre Raz16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fajr Sepasi
1.33
Shahre Raz
0.57

Fajr Sepasi creates 133% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 34 away

creates per match

Fajr Sepasi
1.40
Shahre Raz
0.65

allows per match

Fajr Sepasi
0.50
Shahre Raz
1.26

finishing

Fajr Sepasi+0.00on par
Shahre Raz+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fajr Sepasi ↓

Shahre Raz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–19%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Fajr Sepasi or draw
84%
Fajr Sepasi or Shahre Raz
71%
Draw or Shahre Raz
45%

Winning margin

Fajr Sepasi wins by 2+
27%
Shahre Raz wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Fajr Sepasi 1+ goals
74%
Fajr Sepasi 2+ goals
38%
Fajr Sepasi 3+ goals
15%
Shahre Raz 1+ goals
43%
Shahre Raz 2+ goals
11%
Shahre Raz 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Fajr Sepasi (draw refunded)
78%
Shahre Raz (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fajr Sepasi at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.50 · 100 matches

Shahre Raz away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.26 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fajr Sepasi attack 1.40 + Shahre Raz defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.33

Shahre Raz attack 0.65 + Fajr Sepasi defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Fajr Sepasi scores more
55%
level
29%
Shahre Raz scores more
16%

Fajr Sepasi at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Fajr Sepasi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Fajr Sepasi 1–0 Shahre Raz

Fajr Sepasi beat Shahre Raz 1-0 in Azadegan League on November 22, 2023.

The match was played at Hafezieh Stadium in Shiraz.