Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Fajr Sepasi vs Shahrdari Noshahr — Azadegan League 2018

Fajr Sepasi
Fajr Sepasi
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Shahrdari Noshahr
Shahrdari Noshahr
A. M. Monsef 81'
A. Nabizadeh 51'
S. Jafari 23'
M. Azhir 17'
S. Bahrani 61'
12/7/2024Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 13Hafezieh Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Fajr Sepasi56%
×Draw29%
Shahrdari Noshahr15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fajr Sepasi
1.29
Shahrdari Noshahr
0.52

Fajr Sepasi creates 148% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 35 away

creates per match

Fajr Sepasi
1.52
Shahrdari Noshahr
0.54

allows per match

Fajr Sepasi
0.50
Shahrdari Noshahr
1.06

finishing

Fajr Sepasi+0.00on par
Shahrdari Noshahr+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

71%No
  • No71
  • Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fajr Sepasi ↓

Shahrdari Noshahr →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–19%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–111%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Fajr Sepasi or draw
85%
Fajr Sepasi or Shahrdari Noshahr
71%
Draw or Shahrdari Noshahr
44%

Winning margin

Fajr Sepasi wins by 2+
27%
Shahrdari Noshahr wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Fajr Sepasi 1+ goals
72%
Fajr Sepasi 2+ goals
37%
Fajr Sepasi 3+ goals
14%
Shahrdari Noshahr 1+ goals
41%
Shahrdari Noshahr 2+ goals
10%
Shahrdari Noshahr 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Fajr Sepasi (draw refunded)
79%
Shahrdari Noshahr (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fajr Sepasi at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.50 · 84 matches

Shahrdari Noshahr away — creates 0.54, concedes 1.06 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fajr Sepasi attack 1.52 + Shahrdari Noshahr defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.29

Shahrdari Noshahr attack 0.54 + Fajr Sepasi defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Fajr Sepasi scores more
56%
level
29%
Shahrdari Noshahr scores more
15%

Fajr Sepasi at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Fajr Sepasi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'
M. Azhir
23'
S. Jafari
51'
A. Nabizadeh
61'
S. Bahrani
81'
A. M. Monsef

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Fajr Sepasi 4–1 Shahrdari Noshahr

Fajr Sepasi beat Shahrdari Noshahr 4-1 in Azadegan League on December 7, 2024.

Goals: M. Azhir (17'), S. Jafari (23'), A. Nabizadeh (51'), S. Bahrani (61'), A. M. Monsef (81').

The match was played at Hafezieh Stadium in Shiraz.