Fajr Sepasi 0–0 Shahrdari Astara: Result & Stats

Fajr Sepasi

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Shahrdari Astara

12/19/2022

Azadegan League · Round 15Hafezieh Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Fajr Sepasi66%

×Draw24%

Shahrdari Astara10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fajr SepasiExpected goals in this matchShahrdari Astara

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

0.45

Fajr Sepasi

1.60

Shahrdari Astara

0.45

Fajr Sepasi creates 256% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 84 away

1.50

creates per match

0.40

0.50

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Fajr Sepasi

1.50

Shahrdari Astara

0.40

allows per match

Fajr Sepasi

0.50

Shahrdari Astara

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fajr Sepasi+0.00on par

Shahrdari Astara+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No71
Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fajr Sepasi ↓

Shahrdari Astara →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–16%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–021%

1–19%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–017%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–12%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Fajr Sepasi or draw

90%

Fajr Sepasi or Shahrdari Astara

76%

Draw or Shahrdari Astara

34%

Winning margin

Fajr Sepasi wins by 2+

37%

Shahrdari Astara wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Fajr Sepasi 1+ goals

80%

Fajr Sepasi 2+ goals

47%

Fajr Sepasi 3+ goals

22%

Shahrdari Astara 1+ goals

36%

Shahrdari Astara 2+ goals

8%

Shahrdari Astara 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Fajr Sepasi (draw refunded)

87%

Shahrdari Astara (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fajr Sepasi at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.50 · 86 matches

Shahrdari Astara away — creates 0.40, concedes 1.71 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fajr Sepasi attack 1.50 + Shahrdari Astara defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.60

Shahrdari Astara attack 0.40 + Fajr Sepasi defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Fajr Sepasi scores more

66%

level

24%

Shahrdari Astara scores more

10%

Fajr Sepasi at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Fajr Sepasi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff