Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Fajr Sepasi vs Sepidrood Rasht — Azadegan League 2018

Fajr Sepasi
Fajr Sepasi
FT
3 – 0
Sepidrood Rasht
Sepidrood Rasht
12/12/2019Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 17Shahid Dastgheib Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Fajr Sepasi61%
×Draw26%
Sepidrood Rasht13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fajr Sepasi
1.50
Sepidrood Rasht
0.54

Fajr Sepasi creates 178% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 17 away

creates per match

Fajr Sepasi
1.40
Sepidrood Rasht
0.59

allows per match

Fajr Sepasi
0.50
Sepidrood Rasht
1.59

finishing

Fajr Sepasi+0.00on par
Sepidrood Rasht+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fajr Sepasi ↓

Sepidrood Rasht →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Fajr Sepasi or draw
87%
Fajr Sepasi or Sepidrood Rasht
74%
Draw or Sepidrood Rasht
39%

Winning margin

Fajr Sepasi wins by 2+
32%
Sepidrood Rasht wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Fajr Sepasi 1+ goals
78%
Fajr Sepasi 2+ goals
44%
Fajr Sepasi 3+ goals
19%
Sepidrood Rasht 1+ goals
42%
Sepidrood Rasht 2+ goals
10%
Sepidrood Rasht 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Fajr Sepasi (draw refunded)
82%
Sepidrood Rasht (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fajr Sepasi at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.50 · 100 matches

Sepidrood Rasht away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fajr Sepasi attack 1.40 + Sepidrood Rasht defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.50

Sepidrood Rasht attack 0.59 + Fajr Sepasi defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Fajr Sepasi scores more
61%
level
26%
Sepidrood Rasht scores more
13%

Fajr Sepasi at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Fajr Sepasi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Fajr Sepasi 3–0 Sepidrood Rasht

Fajr Sepasi beat Sepidrood Rasht 3-0 in Azadegan League on December 12, 2019.

The match was played at Shahid Dastgheib Stadium in Shiraz.