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Fajr Sepasi vs Qashqai Shiraz — Azadegan League 2018

Fajr Sepasi
Fajr Sepasi
FT
0 – 1
Qashqai Shiraz
Qashqai Shiraz
9/30/2018Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 6Hafezieh Stadium (Shīrāz (Shiraz))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Fajr Sepasi54%
×Draw28%
Qashqai Shiraz18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fajr Sepasi
1.39
Qashqai Shiraz
0.68

Fajr Sepasi creates 104% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 54 away

creates per match

Fajr Sepasi
1.50
Qashqai Shiraz
0.85

allows per match

Fajr Sepasi
0.50
Qashqai Shiraz
1.28

finishing

Fajr Sepasi+0.00on par
Qashqai Shiraz+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fajr Sepasi ↓

Qashqai Shiraz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Fajr Sepasi or draw
82%
Fajr Sepasi or Qashqai Shiraz
72%
Draw or Qashqai Shiraz
46%

Winning margin

Fajr Sepasi wins by 2+
27%
Qashqai Shiraz wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Fajr Sepasi 1+ goals
75%
Fajr Sepasi 2+ goals
40%
Fajr Sepasi 3+ goals
16%
Qashqai Shiraz 1+ goals
49%
Qashqai Shiraz 2+ goals
15%
Qashqai Shiraz 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Fajr Sepasi (draw refunded)
75%
Qashqai Shiraz (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fajr Sepasi at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.50 · 86 matches

Qashqai Shiraz away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.28 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fajr Sepasi attack 1.50 + Qashqai Shiraz defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.39

Qashqai Shiraz attack 0.85 + Fajr Sepasi defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Fajr Sepasi scores more
54%
level
28%
Qashqai Shiraz scores more
18%

Fajr Sepasi at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Fajr Sepasi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fajr Sepasi vs Qashqai Shiraz

Qashqai Shiraz beat Fajr Sepasi 1-0 in Azadegan League on September 30, 2018.

The match was played at Hafezieh Stadium (Shīrāz (Shiraz)).