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Fajr Sepasi vs Pars Jonoubi JAM — Azadegan League 2018

Fajr Sepasi
Fajr Sepasi
FT
0 – 0
Pars Jonoubi JAM
Pars Jonoubi JAM
12/16/2020Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 5Grand Shiraz Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Fajr Sepasi52%
×Draw29%
Pars Jonoubi JAM20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fajr Sepasi
1.32
Pars Jonoubi JAM
0.70

Fajr Sepasi creates 89% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 100 away

creates per match

Fajr Sepasi
1.52
Pars Jonoubi JAM
0.89

allows per match

Fajr Sepasi
0.50
Pars Jonoubi JAM
1.12

finishing

Fajr Sepasi+0.00on par
Pars Jonoubi JAM+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fajr Sepasi ↓

Pars Jonoubi JAM →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Fajr Sepasi or draw
80%
Fajr Sepasi or Pars Jonoubi JAM
71%
Draw or Pars Jonoubi JAM
48%

Winning margin

Fajr Sepasi wins by 2+
25%
Pars Jonoubi JAM wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Fajr Sepasi 1+ goals
73%
Fajr Sepasi 2+ goals
38%
Fajr Sepasi 3+ goals
15%
Pars Jonoubi JAM 1+ goals
50%
Pars Jonoubi JAM 2+ goals
16%
Pars Jonoubi JAM 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Fajr Sepasi (draw refunded)
72%
Pars Jonoubi JAM (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fajr Sepasi at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.50 · 84 matches

Pars Jonoubi JAM away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.12 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fajr Sepasi attack 1.52 + Pars Jonoubi JAM defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.32

Pars Jonoubi JAM attack 0.89 + Fajr Sepasi defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Fajr Sepasi scores more
52%
level
29%
Pars Jonoubi JAM scores more
20%

Fajr Sepasi at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Fajr Sepasi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fajr Sepasi vs Pars Jonoubi JAM

Fajr Sepasi and Pars Jonoubi JAM drew 0-0 in Azadegan League on December 16, 2020.

The match was played at Grand Shiraz Stadium in Shiraz.