Fajr Sepasi 11–0 Omid Vahdat: Result & Stats

Fajr Sepasi

FT

11 – 0

Omid Vahdat

10/11/2022

Azadegan League · Round 8Hafezieh Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Fajr Sepasi92%

×Draw6%

Omid Vahdat1%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fajr SepasiExpected goals in this matchOmid Vahdat

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.25

0.26

Fajr Sepasi

3.25

Omid Vahdat

0.26

Fajr Sepasi creates 1150% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 3 away

1.51

creates per match

0.00

0.51

allows per match

5.00

creates per match

Fajr Sepasi

1.51

Omid Vahdat

0.00

allows per match

Fajr Sepasi

0.51

Omid Vahdat

5.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fajr Sepasi+0.00on par

Omid Vahdat+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No78
Yes22

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fajr Sepasi ↓

Omid Vahdat →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–11%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–13%

1–20%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–017%

2–14%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–018%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–015%

4–14%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (18%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

44%56%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Fajr Sepasi or draw

99%

Fajr Sepasi or Omid Vahdat

94%

Draw or Omid Vahdat

8%

Winning margin

Fajr Sepasi wins by 2+

77%

Omid Vahdat wins by 2+

0%

Team goals

Fajr Sepasi 1+ goals

96%

Fajr Sepasi 2+ goals

83%

Fajr Sepasi 3+ goals

61%

Omid Vahdat 1+ goals

23%

Omid Vahdat 2+ goals

3%

Omid Vahdat 3+ goals

0%

Draw no bet

Fajr Sepasi (draw refunded)

99%

Omid Vahdat (draw refunded)

1%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

19%

Both score & under 3

3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fajr Sepasi at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.51 · 87 matches

Omid Vahdat away — creates 0.00, concedes 5.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fajr Sepasi attack 1.51 + Omid Vahdat defence 5.00 → ÷2 → 3.25

Omid Vahdat attack 0.00 + Fajr Sepasi defence 0.51 → ÷2 → 0.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 92%?"

Fajr Sepasi scores more

92%

level

6%

Omid Vahdat scores more

1%

Fajr Sepasi at 92% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 92% does not mean "Fajr Sepasi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff