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Fajr Sepasi vs Navad Urmia — Azadegan League 2018

Fajr Sepasi
Fajr Sepasi
FT
1 – 0
Navad Urmia
Navad Urmia
D. Kordestani 65'
12/5/2020Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 3Grand Shiraz Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Fajr Sepasi58%
×Draw29%
Navad Urmia13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fajr Sepasi
1.31
Navad Urmia
0.45

Fajr Sepasi creates 191% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 46 away

creates per match

Fajr Sepasi
1.52
Navad Urmia
0.39

allows per match

Fajr Sepasi
0.50
Navad Urmia
1.09

finishing

Fajr Sepasi+0.00on par
Navad Urmia+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

74%No
  • No74
  • Yes26

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fajr Sepasi ↓

Navad Urmia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–023%
1–110%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–17%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (23%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
52%48%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Fajr Sepasi or draw
87%
Fajr Sepasi or Navad Urmia
71%
Draw or Navad Urmia
42%

Winning margin

Fajr Sepasi wins by 2+
28%
Navad Urmia wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Fajr Sepasi 1+ goals
73%
Fajr Sepasi 2+ goals
38%
Fajr Sepasi 3+ goals
14%
Navad Urmia 1+ goals
36%
Navad Urmia 2+ goals
8%
Navad Urmia 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Fajr Sepasi (draw refunded)
82%
Navad Urmia (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
16%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fajr Sepasi at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.50 · 84 matches

Navad Urmia away — creates 0.39, concedes 1.09 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fajr Sepasi attack 1.52 + Navad Urmia defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.31

Navad Urmia attack 0.39 + Fajr Sepasi defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Fajr Sepasi scores more
58%
level
29%
Navad Urmia scores more
13%

Fajr Sepasi at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Fajr Sepasi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

65'
D. Kordestani

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Fajr Sepasi 1–0 Navad Urmia

Fajr Sepasi beat Navad Urmia 1-0 in Azadegan League on December 5, 2020.

Goals: D. Kordestani (65').

The match was played at Grand Shiraz Stadium in Shiraz.