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Fajr Sepasi vs Naft Gachsaran — Azadegan League 2018

Fajr Sepasi
Fajr Sepasi
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Naft Gachsaran
Naft Gachsaran
M. Azhir 90+6'
9/25/2023Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 4Hafezieh Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Fajr Sepasi53%
×Draw29%
Naft Gachsaran19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fajr Sepasi
1.32
Naft Gachsaran
0.66

Fajr Sepasi creates 100% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 51 away

creates per match

Fajr Sepasi
1.51
Naft Gachsaran
0.80

allows per match

Fajr Sepasi
0.51
Naft Gachsaran
1.14

finishing

Fajr Sepasi+0.00on par
Naft Gachsaran+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fajr Sepasi ↓

Naft Gachsaran →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Fajr Sepasi or draw
81%
Fajr Sepasi or Naft Gachsaran
71%
Draw or Naft Gachsaran
47%

Winning margin

Fajr Sepasi wins by 2+
25%
Naft Gachsaran wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Fajr Sepasi 1+ goals
73%
Fajr Sepasi 2+ goals
38%
Fajr Sepasi 3+ goals
15%
Naft Gachsaran 1+ goals
48%
Naft Gachsaran 2+ goals
14%
Naft Gachsaran 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Fajr Sepasi (draw refunded)
74%
Naft Gachsaran (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fajr Sepasi at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.51 · 87 matches

Naft Gachsaran away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.14 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fajr Sepasi attack 1.51 + Naft Gachsaran defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.32

Naft Gachsaran attack 0.80 + Fajr Sepasi defence 0.51 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Fajr Sepasi scores more
53%
level
29%
Naft Gachsaran scores more
19%

Fajr Sepasi at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Fajr Sepasi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

90+6'
M. Azhir

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fajr Sepasi vs Naft Gachsaran

Fajr Sepasi beat Naft Gachsaran 1-0 in Azadegan League on September 25, 2023.

Goals: M. Azhir (90+6').

The match was played at Hafezieh Stadium in Shiraz.