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Fajr Sepasi vs Mes Shahr-e Babak — Azadegan League 2018

Fajr Sepasi
Fajr Sepasi
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Mes Shahr-e Babak
Mes Shahr-e Babak
4/29/2025Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 31Hafezieh Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Fajr Sepasi45%
×Draw33%
Mes Shahr-e Babak22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fajr Sepasi
1.07
Mes Shahr-e Babak
0.65

Fajr Sepasi creates 65% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 85 away

creates per match

Fajr Sepasi
1.40
Mes Shahr-e Babak
0.79

allows per match

Fajr Sepasi
0.50
Mes Shahr-e Babak
0.74

finishing

Fajr Sepasi+0.00on par
Mes Shahr-e Babak+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fajr Sepasi ↓

Mes Shahr-e Babak →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–112%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
51%49%2.5
25%75%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Fajr Sepasi or draw
78%
Fajr Sepasi or Mes Shahr-e Babak
67%
Draw or Mes Shahr-e Babak
55%

Winning margin

Fajr Sepasi wins by 2+
19%
Mes Shahr-e Babak wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Fajr Sepasi 1+ goals
66%
Fajr Sepasi 2+ goals
29%
Fajr Sepasi 3+ goals
9%
Mes Shahr-e Babak 1+ goals
48%
Mes Shahr-e Babak 2+ goals
14%
Mes Shahr-e Babak 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Fajr Sepasi (draw refunded)
67%
Mes Shahr-e Babak (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fajr Sepasi at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.50 · 100 matches

Mes Shahr-e Babak away — creates 0.79, concedes 0.74 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fajr Sepasi attack 1.40 + Mes Shahr-e Babak defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.07

Mes Shahr-e Babak attack 0.79 + Fajr Sepasi defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Fajr Sepasi scores more
45%
level
33%
Mes Shahr-e Babak scores more
22%

Fajr Sepasi at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Fajr Sepasi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fajr Sepasi vs Mes Shahr-e Babak

Fajr Sepasi and Mes Shahr-e Babak drew 0-0 in Azadegan League on April 29, 2025.

The match was played at Hafezieh Stadium in Shiraz.