Fajr Sepasi 1–1 Khooshe Talaee Saveh

Fajr Sepasi

FT

1 – 1

Khooshe Talaee Saveh

11/22/2020

Azadegan League · Round 1Grand Shiraz Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Fajr Sepasi53%

×Draw29%

Khooshe Talaee Saveh18%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fajr SepasiExpected goals in this matchKhooshe Talaee Saveh

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.64

Fajr Sepasi

1.33

Khooshe Talaee Saveh

0.64

Fajr Sepasi creates 108% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 82 away

1.50

creates per match

0.77

0.50

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Fajr Sepasi

1.50

Khooshe Talaee Saveh

0.77

allows per match

Fajr Sepasi

0.50

Khooshe Talaee Saveh

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fajr Sepasi+0.00on par

Khooshe Talaee Saveh+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fajr Sepasi ↓

Khooshe Talaee Saveh →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

31%69%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Fajr Sepasi or draw

82%

Fajr Sepasi or Khooshe Talaee Saveh

71%

Draw or Khooshe Talaee Saveh

47%

Winning margin

Fajr Sepasi wins by 2+

26%

Khooshe Talaee Saveh wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Fajr Sepasi 1+ goals

74%

Fajr Sepasi 2+ goals

38%

Fajr Sepasi 3+ goals

15%

Khooshe Talaee Saveh 1+ goals

47%

Khooshe Talaee Saveh 2+ goals

14%

Khooshe Talaee Saveh 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Fajr Sepasi (draw refunded)

75%

Khooshe Talaee Saveh (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fajr Sepasi at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.50 · 86 matches

Khooshe Talaee Saveh away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.17 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fajr Sepasi attack 1.50 + Khooshe Talaee Saveh defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.33

Khooshe Talaee Saveh attack 0.77 + Fajr Sepasi defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Fajr Sepasi scores more

53%

level

29%

Khooshe Talaee Saveh scores more

18%

Fajr Sepasi at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Fajr Sepasi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff