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Fajr Sepasi vs Havadar — Azadegan League 2018

Fajr Sepasi
Fajr Sepasi
FT
1 – 1
Havadar
Havadar
D. Kurdistan 36'
S. D. Baghaki 37'
2/20/2021Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 15Grand Shiraz Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Fajr Sepasi46%
×Draw32%
Havadar21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fajr Sepasi
1.10
Havadar
0.64

Fajr Sepasi creates 72% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 32 away

creates per match

Fajr Sepasi
1.52
Havadar
0.78

allows per match

Fajr Sepasi
0.50
Havadar
0.69

finishing

Fajr Sepasi+0.00on par
Havadar+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fajr Sepasi ↓

Havadar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
52%48%2.5
25%75%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Fajr Sepasi or draw
79%
Fajr Sepasi or Havadar
68%
Draw or Havadar
54%

Winning margin

Fajr Sepasi wins by 2+
20%
Havadar wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Fajr Sepasi 1+ goals
67%
Fajr Sepasi 2+ goals
30%
Fajr Sepasi 3+ goals
10%
Havadar 1+ goals
47%
Havadar 2+ goals
14%
Havadar 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Fajr Sepasi (draw refunded)
69%
Havadar (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fajr Sepasi at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.50 · 84 matches

Havadar away — creates 0.78, concedes 0.69 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fajr Sepasi attack 1.52 + Havadar defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 1.10

Havadar attack 0.78 + Fajr Sepasi defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Fajr Sepasi scores more
46%
level
32%
Havadar scores more
21%

Fajr Sepasi at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Fajr Sepasi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'
D. Kurdistan
37'
S. D. Baghaki
90+1'
A. Sedghi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Fajr Sepasi 1–1 Havadar

Fajr Sepasi and Havadar drew 1-1 in Azadegan League on February 20, 2021.

Goals: D. Kurdistan (36'), S. D. Baghaki (37').

The match was played at Grand Shiraz Stadium in Shiraz.