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Fajr Sepasi vs Esteghlal Khuzestan — Azadegan League 2018

Fajr Sepasi
Fajr Sepasi
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Esteghlal Khuzestan
Esteghlal Khuzestan
M. Seifi 82'
K. Siahpour 90+3'
1/31/2023Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 20Hafezieh Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Fajr Sepasi49%
×Draw29%
Esteghlal Khuzestan22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fajr Sepasi
1.26
Esteghlal Khuzestan
0.73

Fajr Sepasi creates 73% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 63 away

creates per match

Fajr Sepasi
1.52
Esteghlal Khuzestan
0.97

allows per match

Fajr Sepasi
0.50
Esteghlal Khuzestan
1.00

finishing

Fajr Sepasi+0.00on par
Esteghlal Khuzestan+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fajr Sepasi ↓

Esteghlal Khuzestan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Fajr Sepasi or draw
78%
Fajr Sepasi or Esteghlal Khuzestan
71%
Draw or Esteghlal Khuzestan
51%

Winning margin

Fajr Sepasi wins by 2+
23%
Esteghlal Khuzestan wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Fajr Sepasi 1+ goals
72%
Fajr Sepasi 2+ goals
36%
Fajr Sepasi 3+ goals
13%
Esteghlal Khuzestan 1+ goals
52%
Esteghlal Khuzestan 2+ goals
17%
Esteghlal Khuzestan 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Fajr Sepasi (draw refunded)
69%
Esteghlal Khuzestan (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fajr Sepasi at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.50 · 84 matches

Esteghlal Khuzestan away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.00 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fajr Sepasi attack 1.52 + Esteghlal Khuzestan defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.26

Esteghlal Khuzestan attack 0.97 + Fajr Sepasi defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Fajr Sepasi scores more
49%
level
29%
Esteghlal Khuzestan scores more
22%

Fajr Sepasi at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Fajr Sepasi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

82'
M. Seifi
90+3'
K. Siahpour

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Fajr Sepasi 1 – 1 Esteghlal Khuzestan

Fajr Sepasi and Esteghlal Khuzestan drew 1-1 in Azadegan League on January 31, 2023.

Goals: M. Seifi (82'), K. Siahpour (90+3').

The match was played at Hafezieh Stadium in Shiraz.