Fajr Sepasi 0–1 Chadormalu SC: Result & Stats

Fajr Sepasi

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Chadormalu SC

12/6/2023

Azadegan League · Round 15Hafezieh Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Fajr Sepasi38%

×Draw32%

Chadormalu SC29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fajr SepasiExpected goals in this matchChadormalu SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

0.83

Fajr Sepasi

1.00

Chadormalu SC

0.83

Fajr Sepasi creates 20% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 31 away

1.40

creates per match

1.16

0.50

allows per match

0.61

creates per match

Fajr Sepasi

1.40

Chadormalu SC

1.16

allows per match

Fajr Sepasi

0.50

Chadormalu SC

0.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fajr Sepasi+0.00on par

Chadormalu SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fajr Sepasi ↓

Chadormalu SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Fajr Sepasi or draw

71%

Fajr Sepasi or Chadormalu SC

68%

Draw or Chadormalu SC

62%

Winning margin

Fajr Sepasi wins by 2+

15%

Chadormalu SC wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Fajr Sepasi 1+ goals

63%

Fajr Sepasi 2+ goals

26%

Fajr Sepasi 3+ goals

8%

Chadormalu SC 1+ goals

56%

Chadormalu SC 2+ goals

20%

Chadormalu SC 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Fajr Sepasi (draw refunded)

57%

Chadormalu SC (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fajr Sepasi at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.50 · 100 matches

Chadormalu SC away — creates 1.16, concedes 0.61 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fajr Sepasi attack 1.40 + Chadormalu SC defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 1.00

Chadormalu SC attack 1.16 + Fajr Sepasi defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Fajr Sepasi scores more

38%

level

32%

Chadormalu SC scores more

29%

Fajr Sepasi at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Fajr Sepasi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff