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Fajr Sepasi vs Baderan Tehran — Azadegan League 2018

Fajr Sepasi
Fajr Sepasi
FT
1 – 2
Baderan Tehran
Baderan Tehran
5/8/2021Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 23Grand Shiraz Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Fajr Sepasi45%
×Draw29%
Baderan Tehran26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fajr Sepasi
1.25
Baderan Tehran
0.86

Fajr Sepasi creates 45% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 51 away

creates per match

Fajr Sepasi
1.40
Baderan Tehran
1.22

allows per match

Fajr Sepasi
0.50
Baderan Tehran
1.10

finishing

Fajr Sepasi+0.00on par
Baderan Tehran+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fajr Sepasi ↓

Baderan Tehran →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Fajr Sepasi or draw
74%
Fajr Sepasi or Baderan Tehran
71%
Draw or Baderan Tehran
55%

Winning margin

Fajr Sepasi wins by 2+
20%
Baderan Tehran wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Fajr Sepasi 1+ goals
71%
Fajr Sepasi 2+ goals
36%
Fajr Sepasi 3+ goals
13%
Baderan Tehran 1+ goals
58%
Baderan Tehran 2+ goals
21%
Baderan Tehran 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Fajr Sepasi (draw refunded)
64%
Baderan Tehran (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fajr Sepasi at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.50 · 100 matches

Baderan Tehran away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.10 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fajr Sepasi attack 1.40 + Baderan Tehran defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.25

Baderan Tehran attack 1.22 + Fajr Sepasi defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Fajr Sepasi scores more
45%
level
29%
Baderan Tehran scores more
26%

Fajr Sepasi at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Fajr Sepasi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Fajr Sepasi 1–2 Baderan Tehran

Baderan Tehran beat Fajr Sepasi 2-1 in Azadegan League on May 8, 2021.

The match was played at Grand Shiraz Stadium in Shiraz.