Fajr Sepasi 1–0 Arvand Khorramshahr FC

Fajr Sepasi

FT

1 – 0

Arvand Khorramshahr FC

2/6/2019

Azadegan League · Round 22Grand Shiraz Stadium (Shīrāz (Shiraz))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Fajr Sepasi60%

×Draw26%

Arvand Khorramshahr FC15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fajr SepasiExpected goals in this matchArvand Khorramshahr FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

0.61

Fajr Sepasi

1.53

Arvand Khorramshahr FC

0.61

Fajr Sepasi creates 151% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 15 away

1.40

creates per match

0.73

0.50

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Fajr Sepasi

1.40

Arvand Khorramshahr FC

0.73

allows per match

Fajr Sepasi

0.50

Arvand Khorramshahr FC

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fajr Sepasi+0.00on par

Arvand Khorramshahr FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fajr Sepasi ↓

Arvand Khorramshahr FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–17%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Fajr Sepasi or draw

85%

Fajr Sepasi or Arvand Khorramshahr FC

74%

Draw or Arvand Khorramshahr FC

40%

Winning margin

Fajr Sepasi wins by 2+

32%

Arvand Khorramshahr FC wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Fajr Sepasi 1+ goals

78%

Fajr Sepasi 2+ goals

45%

Fajr Sepasi 3+ goals

20%

Arvand Khorramshahr FC 1+ goals

46%

Arvand Khorramshahr FC 2+ goals

13%

Arvand Khorramshahr FC 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Fajr Sepasi (draw refunded)

80%

Arvand Khorramshahr FC (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fajr Sepasi at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.50 · 100 matches

Arvand Khorramshahr FC away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fajr Sepasi attack 1.40 + Arvand Khorramshahr FC defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.53

Arvand Khorramshahr FC attack 0.73 + Fajr Sepasi defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Fajr Sepasi scores more

60%

level

26%

Arvand Khorramshahr FC scores more

15%

Fajr Sepasi at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Fajr Sepasi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff