Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Fajr Sepasi vs Aluminium Arak — Azadegan League 2018

Fajr Sepasi
Fajr Sepasi
FT
1 – 2
Aluminium Arak
Aluminium Arak
M. H. Karimzadeh 37'
S. Aghaei 68'
A. Ghorbani 55'
1/7/2020Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 18Shahid Dastgheib Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Fajr Sepasi43%
×Draw33%
Aluminium Arak24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fajr Sepasi
1.04
Aluminium Arak
0.68

Fajr Sepasi creates 53% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 20 away

creates per match

Fajr Sepasi
1.52
Aluminium Arak
0.85

allows per match

Fajr Sepasi
0.50
Aluminium Arak
0.55

finishing

Fajr Sepasi+0.00on par
Aluminium Arak+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fajr Sepasi ↓

Aluminium Arak →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–112%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
51%49%2.5
25%75%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Fajr Sepasi or draw
76%
Fajr Sepasi or Aluminium Arak
67%
Draw or Aluminium Arak
57%

Winning margin

Fajr Sepasi wins by 2+
17%
Aluminium Arak wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Fajr Sepasi 1+ goals
65%
Fajr Sepasi 2+ goals
28%
Fajr Sepasi 3+ goals
9%
Aluminium Arak 1+ goals
49%
Aluminium Arak 2+ goals
15%
Aluminium Arak 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Fajr Sepasi (draw refunded)
65%
Aluminium Arak (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fajr Sepasi at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.50 · 84 matches

Aluminium Arak away — creates 0.85, concedes 0.55 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fajr Sepasi attack 1.52 + Aluminium Arak defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 1.04

Aluminium Arak attack 0.85 + Fajr Sepasi defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Fajr Sepasi scores more
43%
level
33%
Aluminium Arak scores more
24%

Fajr Sepasi at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Fajr Sepasi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'
M. H. Karimzadeh
55'
A. Ghorbani
68'
S. Aghaei

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fajr Sepasi vs Aluminium Arak

Aluminium Arak beat Fajr Sepasi 2-1 in Azadegan League on January 7, 2020.

Goals: M. H. Karimzadeh (37'), A. Ghorbani (55'), S. Aghaei (68').

The match was played at Shahid Dastgheib Stadium in Shiraz.