Fairview Rangers 0–4 Shelbourne: Result & Stats

Fairview Rangers

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Shelbourne

J. Martin 86', 73', 5'

D. Kelly 24'

7/19/2025

FAI Cup · 2nd RoundSingland Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Fairview Rangers23%

×Draw21%

Shelbourne55%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fairview RangersExpected goals in this matchShelbourne

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

2.06

Fairview Rangers

1.27

Shelbourne

2.06

Shelbourne creates 62% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 13 away

1.00

creates per match

1.62

2.50

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Fairview Rangers

1.00

Shelbourne

1.62

allows per match

Fairview Rangers

2.50

Shelbourne

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fairview Rangers+0.00on par

Shelbourne+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fairview Rangers ↓

Shelbourne →

0–04%

0–17%

0–28%

0–35%

0–43%

1–05%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–43%

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Fairview Rangers or draw

45%

Fairview Rangers or Shelbourne

79%

Draw or Shelbourne

77%

Winning margin

Fairview Rangers wins by 2+

Shelbourne wins by 2+

33%

Team goals

Fairview Rangers 1+ goals

72%

Fairview Rangers 2+ goals

36%

Fairview Rangers 3+ goals

14%

Shelbourne 1+ goals

87%

Shelbourne 2+ goals

61%

Shelbourne 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Fairview Rangers (draw refunded)

30%

Shelbourne (draw refunded)

70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Fairview Rangers at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

Shelbourne away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Fairview Rangers attack 1.00 + Shelbourne defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.27

Shelbourne attack 1.62 + Fairview Rangers defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 55%?"

Fairview Rangers scores more

23%

level

21%

Shelbourne scores more

55%

Shelbourne at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Shelbourne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

73'

86'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff