Fairplay Bucureşti W 3–3 Universitatea Galaţi W

Fairplay Bucureşti W

FT

3 – 3

Universitatea Galaţi W

5/14/2023

Liga 1 Feminin · Relegation Round - 8Baza Sportivă Samurcași

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Fairplay Bucureşti W60%

×Draw16%

Universitatea Galaţi W24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fairplay Bucureşti WExpected goals in this matchUniversitatea Galaţi W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.52

2.29

Fairplay Bucureşti W

3.52

Universitatea Galaţi W

2.29

Fairplay Bucureşti W creates 54% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 31 away

2.23

creates per match

0.74

3.84

allows per match

4.81

creates per match

Fairplay Bucureşti W

2.23

Universitatea Galaţi W

0.74

allows per match

Fairplay Bucureşti W

3.84

Universitatea Galaţi W

4.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fairplay Bucureşti W+0.00on par

Universitatea Galaţi W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over92
Under8

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes87
No13

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fairplay Bucureşti W ↓

Universitatea Galaţi W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–00%

0–11%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–01%

1–13%

1–23%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–25%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–26%

3–35%

3–43%

4

4–02%

4–15%

4–25%

4–34%

4–42%

Most likely 3–2 (6%) · grid covers 72% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

98%2%2.5

92%8%3.5

82%18%4.5

66%34%

Double chance

Fairplay Bucureşti W or draw

76%

Fairplay Bucureşti W or Universitatea Galaţi W

84%

Draw or Universitatea Galaţi W

40%

Winning margin

Fairplay Bucureşti W wins by 2+

41%

Universitatea Galaţi W wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Fairplay Bucureşti W 1+ goals

97%

Fairplay Bucureşti W 2+ goals

86%

Fairplay Bucureşti W 3+ goals

66%

Universitatea Galaţi W 1+ goals

90%

Universitatea Galaţi W 2+ goals

66%

Universitatea Galaţi W 3+ goals

40%

Draw no bet

Fairplay Bucureşti W (draw refunded)

71%

Universitatea Galaţi W (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

84%

Both score & under 3

3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fairplay Bucureşti W at home — creates 2.23, concedes 3.84 · 31 matches

Universitatea Galaţi W away — creates 0.74, concedes 4.81 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fairplay Bucureşti W attack 2.23 + Universitatea Galaţi W defence 4.81 → ÷2 → 3.52

Universitatea Galaţi W attack 0.74 + Fairplay Bucureşti W defence 3.84 → ÷2 → 2.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Fairplay Bucureşti W scores more

60%

level

16%

Universitatea Galaţi W scores more

24%

Fairplay Bucureşti W at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Fairplay Bucureşti W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff