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Fairplay Bucureşti W vs Ladies Târgu Mureş W — Liga 1 Feminin 2020

Fairplay Bucureşti W
Fairplay Bucureşti W
FT
5 – 0
Ladies Târgu Mureş W
Ladies Târgu Mureş W
12/5/2021Liga 1 FemininLiga 1 Feminin · Round 11Baza Sportivă Ciorogârla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Fairplay Bucureşti W52%
×Draw17%
Ladies Târgu Mureş W31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fairplay Bucureşti W
3.34
Ladies Târgu Mureş W
2.59

Fairplay Bucureşti W creates 29% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 35 away

creates per match

Fairplay Bucureşti W
2.23
Ladies Târgu Mureş W
1.34

allows per match

Fairplay Bucureşti W
3.84
Ladies Târgu Mureş W
4.46

finishing

Fairplay Bucureşti W+0.00on par
Ladies Târgu Mureş W+0.00on par

Total goals

93%Over
  • Over93
  • Under7

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

89%Yes
  • Yes89
  • No11

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fairplay Bucureşti W ↓

Ladies Târgu Mureş W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–01%
1–12%
1–23%
1–33%
1–42%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–14%
4–25%
4–34%
4–43%

Most likely 3–2 (6%) · grid covers 71% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
93%7%3.5
83%17%4.5
68%32%

Double chance

Fairplay Bucureşti W or draw
69%
Fairplay Bucureşti W or Ladies Târgu Mureş W
83%
Draw or Ladies Târgu Mureş W
48%

Winning margin

Fairplay Bucureşti W wins by 2+
34%
Ladies Târgu Mureş W wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Fairplay Bucureşti W 1+ goals
96%
Fairplay Bucureşti W 2+ goals
84%
Fairplay Bucureşti W 3+ goals
63%
Ladies Târgu Mureş W 1+ goals
92%
Ladies Târgu Mureş W 2+ goals
73%
Ladies Târgu Mureş W 3+ goals
47%

Draw no bet

Fairplay Bucureşti W (draw refunded)
63%
Ladies Târgu Mureş W (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
86%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fairplay Bucureşti W at home — creates 2.23, concedes 3.84 · 31 matches

Ladies Târgu Mureş W away — creates 1.34, concedes 4.46 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fairplay Bucureşti W attack 2.23 + Ladies Târgu Mureş W defence 4.46 → ÷2 → 3.34

Ladies Târgu Mureş W attack 1.34 + Fairplay Bucureşti W defence 3.84 → ÷2 → 2.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Fairplay Bucureşti W scores more
52%
level
17%
Ladies Târgu Mureş W scores more
31%

Fairplay Bucureşti W at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Fairplay Bucureşti W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fairplay Bucureşti W vs Ladies Târgu Mureş W

Fairplay Bucureşti W beat Ladies Târgu Mureş W 5-0 in Liga 1 Feminin on December 5, 2021.

The match was played at Baza Sportivă Ciorogârla in Ciorogârla.