Fairplay Bucureşti W 1–5 Csikszereda MC W

Fairplay Bucureşti W

FT

1 – 5

Csikszereda MC W

11/27/2022

Liga 1 Feminin · Round 10Stadionul Comunal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Fairplay Bucureşti W24%

×Draw18%

Csikszereda MC W57%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fairplay Bucureşti WExpected goals in this matchCsikszereda MC W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

2.73

Fairplay Bucureşti W

1.77

Csikszereda MC W

2.73

Csikszereda MC W creates 54% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 49 away

2.23

creates per match

1.63

3.84

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Fairplay Bucureşti W

2.23

Csikszereda MC W

1.63

allows per match

Fairplay Bucureşti W

3.84

Csikszereda MC W

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fairplay Bucureşti W+0.00on par

Csikszereda MC W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fairplay Bucureşti W ↓

Csikszereda MC W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–24%

0–34%

0–43%

1

1–02%

1–15%

1–28%

1–37%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–27%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

82%18%3.5

65%35%4.5

45%55%

Double chance

Fairplay Bucureşti W or draw

43%

Fairplay Bucureşti W or Csikszereda MC W

82%

Draw or Csikszereda MC W

76%

Winning margin

Fairplay Bucureşti W wins by 2+

12%

Csikszereda MC W wins by 2+

38%

Team goals

Fairplay Bucureşti W 1+ goals

83%

Fairplay Bucureşti W 2+ goals

53%

Fairplay Bucureşti W 3+ goals

26%

Csikszereda MC W 1+ goals

93%

Csikszereda MC W 2+ goals

75%

Csikszereda MC W 3+ goals

50%

Draw no bet

Fairplay Bucureşti W (draw refunded)

30%

Csikszereda MC W (draw refunded)

70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

72%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fairplay Bucureşti W at home — creates 2.23, concedes 3.84 · 31 matches

Csikszereda MC W away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.31 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fairplay Bucureşti W attack 2.23 + Csikszereda MC W defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.77

Csikszereda MC W attack 1.63 + Fairplay Bucureşti W defence 3.84 → ÷2 → 2.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Fairplay Bucureşti W scores more

24%

level

18%

Csikszereda MC W scores more

57%

Csikszereda MC W at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Csikszereda MC W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff