Boca Unidos vs Sarmiento Junin — Primera Nacional 2012
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 7+ matches
Boca Unidos31%
Sarmiento Junin36%✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Sarmiento Junin creates 10% more chances
Season form · 7 home / 28 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under72
- Over28
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No64
- Yes36
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Boca Unidos ↓
Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Boca Unidos at home — creates 0.86, concedes 0.57 · 7 matches
Sarmiento Junin away — creates 1.36, concedes 0.89 · 28 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Boca Unidos attack 0.86 + Sarmiento Junin defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.88
Sarmiento Junin attack 1.36 + Boca Unidos defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.97
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 36%?"
Sarmiento Junin at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 36% does not mean "Sarmiento Junin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
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Almagro
Platense
Central Cordoba de Santiago
Gimnasia M.
Independ. Rivadavia
Brown DE Adrogue
Ferro Carril Oeste
Atletico Mitre
Agropecuario
Villa Dalmine
Temperley
Deportivo Moron
Defensores De Belgrano
Atletico DE Rafaela
Quilmes
Gimnasia Jujuy
Guillermo Brown
Olimpo Bahia Blanca
Instituto Cordoba
Santamarina
Chacarita Juniors
Los AndesIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Boca Unidos host Sarmiento Junin on Sunday, 2 September 2012 at 19:00. The match is part of the Primera Nacional 2012/2013 season.
Primera Nacional: Boca Unidos 0–0 Sarmiento Junin
Boca Unidos and Sarmiento Junin drew 0-0 in Primera Nacional on September 2, 2012.
The match was played at Estadio José Antonio Romero Feris.