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Fagiano Okayama vs Thespakusatsu Gunma — J2 League 2018

Fagiano Okayama
Fagiano Okayama
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Thespakusatsu Gunma
Thespakusatsu Gunma
6/22/2024J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 21City Light Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Fagiano Okayama47%
×Draw27%
Thespakusatsu Gunma26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fagiano Okayama
1.38
Thespakusatsu Gunma
0.96

Fagiano Okayama creates 44% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 105 away

creates per match

Fagiano Okayama
1.22
Thespakusatsu Gunma
0.97

allows per match

Fagiano Okayama
0.96
Thespakusatsu Gunma
1.53

finishing

Fagiano Okayama+0.00on par
Thespakusatsu Gunma+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fagiano Okayama ↓

Thespakusatsu Gunma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Fagiano Okayama or draw
74%
Fagiano Okayama or Thespakusatsu Gunma
73%
Draw or Thespakusatsu Gunma
53%

Winning margin

Fagiano Okayama wins by 2+
22%
Thespakusatsu Gunma wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Fagiano Okayama 1+ goals
75%
Fagiano Okayama 2+ goals
40%
Fagiano Okayama 3+ goals
16%
Thespakusatsu Gunma 1+ goals
62%
Thespakusatsu Gunma 2+ goals
25%
Thespakusatsu Gunma 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Fagiano Okayama (draw refunded)
64%
Thespakusatsu Gunma (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fagiano Okayama at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.96 · 147 matches

Thespakusatsu Gunma away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.53 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fagiano Okayama attack 1.22 + Thespakusatsu Gunma defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.38

Thespakusatsu Gunma attack 0.97 + Fagiano Okayama defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Fagiano Okayama scores more
47%
level
27%
Thespakusatsu Gunma scores more
26%

Fagiano Okayama at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Fagiano Okayama will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fagiano Okayama vs Thespakusatsu Gunma

Fagiano Okayama beat Thespakusatsu Gunma 1-0 in J2 League on June 22, 2024.

The match was played at City Light Stadium in Okayama.