Fagiano Okayama vs Machida Zelvia

Fagiano Okayama

Preview

10:00

Machida Zelvia

5/22/2027

J1 League · Round 36City Light Stadium

Big match

38%

Fagiano Okayama

model favours

38%26%37%

Machida Zelvia are unbeaten in 9 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

52%

over 2.5 goals

56%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Fagiano Okayama38%

×Draw26%

Machida Zelvia37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fagiano OkayamaExpected goals in this matchMachida Zelvia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.36

Fagiano Okayama

1.38

Machida Zelvia

1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 9 away

1.64

creates per match

1.34

1.39

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Fagiano Okayama

1.64

Machida Zelvia

1.34

allows per match

Fagiano Okayama

1.39

Machida Zelvia

1.11

-0.44scores less than expected

finishing

+0.33scores more than expected

finishing

Fagiano Okayama-0.44scores less

Machida Zelvia+0.33scores more

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fagiano Okayama ↓

Machida Zelvia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Fagiano Okayama or draw

63%

Fagiano Okayama or Machida Zelvia

74%

Draw or Machida Zelvia

62%

Winning margin

Fagiano Okayama wins by 2+

17%

Machida Zelvia wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Fagiano Okayama 1+ goals

75%

Fagiano Okayama 2+ goals

40%

Fagiano Okayama 3+ goals

16%

Machida Zelvia 1+ goals

74%

Machida Zelvia 2+ goals

39%

Machida Zelvia 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Fagiano Okayama (draw refunded)

51%

Machida Zelvia (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fagiano Okayama at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.39 · 5 matches

Machida Zelvia away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fagiano Okayama attack 1.64 + Machida Zelvia defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.38

Machida Zelvia attack 1.34 + Fagiano Okayama defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Fagiano Okayama scores more

38%

level

26%

Machida Zelvia scores more

37%

Fagiano Okayama at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Fagiano Okayama will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Fagiano Okayama score first in only 33% of matches
Fagiano Okayama raise their game against the top half — 39% wins vs the upper half, only 26% vs the lower
70% of Machida Zelvia’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
Style contrast — Fagiano Okayama play Direct / counter-attacking, Machida Zelvia Defensively solid
35% of Machida Zelvia’s goals come after the 75th minute