Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Fagiano Okayama vs Machida Zelvia — J2 League 2018

Fagiano Okayama
Fagiano Okayama
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Machida Zelvia
Machida Zelvia
11/8/2020J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 32City Light Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 127+ matches

Fagiano Okayama37%
×Draw28%
Machida Zelvia35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fagiano Okayama
1.17
Machida Zelvia
1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 147 home / 127 away

creates per match

Fagiano Okayama
1.22
Machida Zelvia
1.31

allows per match

Fagiano Okayama
0.96
Machida Zelvia
1.12

finishing

Fagiano Okayama+0.00on par
Machida Zelvia+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fagiano Okayama ↓

Machida Zelvia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Fagiano Okayama or draw
65%
Fagiano Okayama or Machida Zelvia
72%
Draw or Machida Zelvia
63%

Winning margin

Fagiano Okayama wins by 2+
15%
Machida Zelvia wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Fagiano Okayama 1+ goals
69%
Fagiano Okayama 2+ goals
33%
Fagiano Okayama 3+ goals
11%
Machida Zelvia 1+ goals
68%
Machida Zelvia 2+ goals
32%
Machida Zelvia 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Fagiano Okayama (draw refunded)
51%
Machida Zelvia (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fagiano Okayama at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.96 · 147 matches

Machida Zelvia away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.12 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fagiano Okayama attack 1.22 + Machida Zelvia defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.17

Machida Zelvia attack 1.31 + Fagiano Okayama defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Fagiano Okayama scores more
37%
level
28%
Machida Zelvia scores more
35%

Fagiano Okayama at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Fagiano Okayama will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fagiano Okayama vs Machida Zelvia

Fagiano Okayama beat Machida Zelvia 1-0 in J2 League on November 8, 2020.

The match was played at City Light Stadium in Okayama.